How Generational Demographics Shape the Planning Process

What’s Age Got to Do with It?

Today, our cities and regions are shaped by the contrasting values of Baby Boomers and Millennials, the evolution of the American family structure, and the new perspectives brought by growing immigrant communities. Sifting through all of the available information can be overwhelming and slow down the urban planning process. Luckily, data can help us separate our biases from the truth and move our communities forward.

The Challenge: Understanding Generational Divides

Understanding the generational breakdown of your city can help you predict what the city’s challenges and opportunities look like over the coming decade. We can expect that cities with a strong Boomer population will face lots of housing turnover. Cities looking to retain or attract Millennials will need to focus on maintaining or improving their affordability and strengthening their job market. And let’s not forget about Generation X who stands at the forefront of integrating technology into traditional modes of civic engagement.

Millennials: Ages 19 to 34

Millennials are the most diverse generation in American history and are outpacing Baby Boomers to become the largest generational cohort. Attracting Millennials is important to the growth of any city, but as their wages suffer from a post-Recession job market, it can be tough to house this generation.

Millennials reflect broader changes in American society. Forty-four percent identify as a non-white minority and many are migrants. The changes we see in Millennials foreshadow the demographic changes we’ll see in America in the coming decades.

Concentrations of Millennials Across the United States

Millennials are culturally distinct. Polling indicates that they are remarkably well-informed and optimistic about our Nation’s future. You can expect the average Millennial to have articulate opinions about where they’d like to see their city headed and engage in complex political conversations on social media, but many of those same Millennials won’t make it to the polls on election day.

Millennials are already establishing a new economic order where entrepreneurship and social good enterprises are more valued than ever. What makes Millennials a unique addition to your local economy is their eagerness to innovate through complete transparency of information and attitudes. They are quick to seek internal feedback on their work, able to determine quickly whether a project will be successful.

As cities and states strive to attract educated Millennials, it will be crucial to maintain or create an affordable housing market and find innovative ways to include Millennials in discussions about the future of their cities. Some Midwestern cities like Kansas City, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati are successful in drawing Millennials in with the promise of a more affordable lifestyle, relatively dense neighborhoods, and the opportunity to be a part of building their own local culture.

In Provo, Utah, Millennials have done exactly that. Home to Brigham Young University(BYU), which is affiliated with The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, Provo attracts Millennials seeking an education and retains them with a diverse job-market and thriving faith community.

Distribution of Utah’s Millennial Population

Distribution of Millennials in the Provo-Orem Area

At first glance, it is easy to attribute the high concentration of Millennials in the area to the influence of BYU alone. After all, the school has an enrollment of nearly 30,000 in a city of just over 115,000 residents. Provo is far more than a college town, though; the city is also a budding spot in Utah’s growing tech scene and ranks highly on a number of lists celebrating small- and mid-sized cities with great job markets.

Gen X: Ages 35 to 49

Generation X falls squarely in the demographic middle between Baby Boomers and Millennials, often leaving them out of the generational dialogue. Although this generation was hit hardest by the Recession, they are no less invested in the future of their cities and stand at the forefront integrating technology into traditional modes of civic engagement.

Generation X is the picture of moderation. Generally in favor of limited governance, Gen Xer’s often have more moderate views than the conservative Boomer generation before them and the liberal Millennials that followed. Unfortunately, Generation X was hit hardest by the recession and are currently at risk for experiencing downward mobility.

Many Gen Xers feel that government worked for their parents, but has failed them. What we love about Generation X is their embrace of modern civic engagement. Generation X gets excited about tools like the engagement arm of mySidewalk that allows them to dialogue with other community members without the time commitment of a city hall meeting.

Concentrations of Generation X Across the United States

Baby Boomers: Ages 50 to 69

Baby Boomers’ childhoods were marked by the birth of modern American suburbia and their retirements will bookend that trend with an increase in housing turnover. It’s not just turnover, it is turnout. With remarkable rates of electoral participation, Baby Boomers drive our local elections.

Baby Boomers are more socially and fiscally conservative than the two generations that followed. They also fit the norms of the American dream much more closely, with higher rates of marriage, religious affiliation, and high-school graduation. During Presidential election years, nearly 80 percent of Boomers turn out to vote as compared to just over 50 percent of Millennials. (When Baby Boomers were in their twenties, their turnout rate was also hovering around 50 percent.)

Concentrations of Baby Boomers Across the United States

The planning challenge that accompanies Baby Boomers is Housing Turnover. As older Americans move out of their single-family homes for retirement care and smaller apartments, more housing will become available. Using data to identify regions that are more likely to experience housing turnover, planners will be able to prepare for its positive and negative economic impacts.

Where Older Americans and High-Rates of Home Owner Occupancy Converge

I’m sure you’re well aware that Florida is a destination for Boomers, but Maine? That’s a surprise. Nearly 30 percent of residents in Maine belong to the Baby Boomer generation.

Even more surprising? Maine’s Boomers aren’t living along the relatively temperate coast in high numbers. In the center of the state, Boomers account for up to 76 percent of the population and at the 2010 Census, everyone living in the unorganized territory of Seboomook Lake was a Boomer, all 39 people. The area supports a commercial campground, so the population might be primarily composed support staff.

As for a town, Bangor, Maine has a relatively large Boomer population. Bangor is supported by the pulp and paper industry, as well as an Air Base for the National Guard.

Although we don’t expect much housing turnover in the Bangor itself, many of the surrounding Census Block Groups are likely to see a turnover in housing over the next decade. This will open up the housing market to the University of Maine graduates that study 15 minutes away in Orono.

Re-Shaping The Planning Process

Getting urban planning right–making the best possible decisions for the future of your city–requires a combination of on-the-ground expertise, citizen feedback, and well-organized data. Understanding how each generation, with their qualitative quirks and quantitative influence, will shape your city is critical to predicting its future. The ideal is to encourage a good balance, so that new generations can economically support their predecessors and industries can thrive with a variety of perspectives.

Want to know the generational make-up of your community? Request a free, interactive map here.

About the Author: By the Census Bureau demarcations, Michelle Stockwell just barely fits into the Millennial category. She will be graduating college this May and seeking out work in a great, dense, city.