Embracing a Population Boom and Housing the Vulnerable
Hometown Insights: Denver
Denver’s housing market is heating up. Since the mile-high city experienced peak foreclosure numbers during the recession, Denver is now considered the hottest housing market of 2016. A growing economy and a blooming tech-scene brought in over 100,000 new residents and the trend is expected to continue.
In the past decade alone, Denver has seen a forty-seven percent increase in college-graduates ages 25 to 34, making Denver a young and well-educated city. Denver is booming. However, progress on affordable housing hasn’t kept pace with the market; the city now estimates that Denver is 30,000 housing units short of demand.
We’re (naturally) curious about the story that data tells.
In mapping out where affordable housing policies should focus in, we were able to answer some of our own questions using public data.
Which residents will be able to keep up with the growth and who gets left behind?
In its rapid growth, Denver has struggled with affordability, especially for low-income residents. Denver’s homeless population is on the rise and organizations estimate it will continue to rise until 4,000 new low-income housing units are constructed. One third of homeless people in Denver are employed, making it clear that low-income jobs in Denver aren’t sufficient to afford housing.
Mapped above is Denver’s location affordability index for middle income households. Lighter shades of green indicate a more affordable neighborhood. Mid-income residents spend between forty and sixty percent of their incomes on housing and transportation combined, averaging between twenty-five and thirty-two percent of their incomes on housing alone.
Middle-income families, on the whole, can afford to stay in Denver. Through the subsidization of mortgages, more middle-class Coloradans will be able to own homes, a traditional measure of economic success.
Where can we expect housing turnover?
This map highlights areas with impending housing turnover. All of the included zip codes have a home owner occupancy rate of over 40% and at least 10% of the residents in that area are over 65 years old. Block groups with a bluish or purple tint will be the most impacted by housing turnover. These neighborhoods provide an opportunity for affordable housing preservation within the next few years as older residents seek alternative housing.
Where can we introduce mixed-income housing?
The map on the left displays the average proportion of income and the rental vacancy rate for the entire city. The map on the right demonstrates neighborhoods where the average tenants spend over 30% of their income on housing and where the rental vacancy rate is between 9 and 16%. Since the housing in these neighborhoods isn’t filled to capacity, empty units present an opportunity for mixed-income housing units.
An Innovative Policy Approach
The Mayor’s office is already giving us a cause for optimism. Mayor Michael Hancock is making affordable housing policy a priority through private-public partnerships that subsidize homeownership, cutting red tape, preserving housing that currently serves Denver’s most vulnerable residents, and encouraging sustainable development. The proactive plan will be implemented between 2015 and 2019, providing us with a great case study to learn from in the upcoming years.
Interested in predicting projected housing turnover in your community? Request a free, interactive map here that will identify specific areas in your city.
About the Author: Born somewhere between Colorado’s Mile-High City and Missouri’s Cowtown, Michelle Stockwell is an amateur data-wrangler with a passion for good governance.
