Addressing an Affordable Housing Crisis

Last week the Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies released their annual State of the Nation’s Housing report. There were many striking findings, perhaps none as concerning as the growing need and shrinking supply of affordable housing (particularly for our aging public).

In 2013, 11.2 million extremely low-income households (earning up to 30 percent of the median income in the area) competed for just 7.3 million units they could afford.
Excluding units that were structurally inadequate or occupied by higher-income households, there were only 34 affordable units for every 100 extremely low-income renters in 2013.

To make matters worse, nearly 2.2 million assisted housing units could be lost from the affordable stock over the next decade. To address this crisis, new affordable housing projects are needed, and each project must be optimally located to maximize its impact. Fortunately, the data to support smart site selection is more easily available than ever before.

This post will show you how to identify the areas of greatest need in a few minutes.

Let’s use Chicago as an example.

First, we are going to look at a map that highlights concentrations of people living below the poverty level ($11,770 annual income for individuals — $15,930 for a family of two) and overlays that with the number of vacant houses in the area. In the map below the darker green tones indicate high concentrations of poverty and the darker pink tones indicate high vacancy rates.

A bivariate census block group map highlighting people living in poverty and housing vacancy. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey, 2010–2014 5-Year Estimates.

We want to focus on places where there is great need but also a demonstrated market for housing. In the next map the data is filtered to exclude block groups that have less than 20% of residents living in poverty and where vacancy rates exceed 20%. The resulting map highlights the 30 or so block groups in Chicago where the need is greatest and where demand for housing is high.

A filtered view of Chicago’s census block groups displaying areas where people living below the poverty level exceeds 20% of the population and where housing vacancy is less than 20%. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey, 2010–2014 5-Year Estimates.

The blue boundaries demonstrate census block groups that are eligible for CBDG fund. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey, 2010–2014 5-Year Estimates. (Click to enlarge)

Next we can do a quick check to make sure the block groups fall within areas eligible for HUD’s Community Development Block Group funds. In this example they all do, so we know the areas highlighted are eligible for federal funding for the project.

Now let’s dig in a bit more. In the last map let’s target a particular area that seems like the best candidate for a new affordable housing project. The block group highlighted in orange has 31.6% of residents living below the poverty line and only a 6% vacancy rate. When we look at some more data about the area, we see a large number of female-led families (almost 3x the number of two-parent families) and there is an unusual number of young people, particularly 25–34 year olds. These facts help reveal the type of housing most in need — well designed, tidy spaces that use healthy building materials and have good access to needed services (I recommend Gwendlyn Wright’s Design and Affordable American Housing if affordable housing design is of interest).

A snapshot of block group 170313514001. This particular spot south of downtown Chicago looks like a perfect candidate for an influx of affordable housing projects. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey, 2010–2014 5-Year Estimates.

In a couple of minutes of data sifting we have uncovered a few locations where affordable housing is likely to be in high demand and of high impact.

You can find an interactive dashboard of this data here.

As always, we would be more than happy to share a customized free dashboard for your own community. Request one here.

About the Author: Stephen Hardy is the CPO of mySidewalk. Stephen is responsible for providing the strategic vision for mySidewalk’s team of designers and developers. Before joining mySidewalk, he used the platform as an urban planner with BNIM Architects. Stephen is certified by the American Institute of Certified Planners and holds a LEED AP credential.